Don't worry about bubbles because investors are standing in quicksand. The Fed is desperately trying to raise rates but even if they raise rates next week it will not make any difference as a strong correction is very probable within months leaving the FED without the ability to lower rates enough to make a difference.
Deflationary pressures will continue indefinitely
Cash is truly King until the real pain sets in.
For 2016 Fairfax Financial and Fairfax India will continue to be my only holdings.
Wishing you my very best in 2016
Monday, December 7, 2015
Thursday, October 1, 2015
BULL MEETS BEAR 2009-2015
As the world economy slows down and deflation takes hold you can still hear "Buy on the dips"
It seems to me that we are in the first inning of a very severe bear market which is why you're are still hearing the mantra this is a "buying opportunity. Many experts are stating the bull market is alive and well and to be greedy when others are fearful
No one wants to see the party come to an end but that's what I see as China sputters out and commodities tank.
Anyone close to retirement should get out and sit back. This bull market was the 3rd longest in U.S. history and if you got in early then you made a lot of money.
I sometimes wonder if the Financial Crisis ever ended and only because of QE were we able to stay on our feet. Main Street hasn't got off on any of the QE and the FED will not be able to raise rates for
possibly years especially if we see a sharp correction this year as I expect we will.
The bottom line is opportunities abound if you know where we are headed.
DON'T BUY ON THE DIPS
As always these are just the ramblings of a man trying to interpret the shadows on the wall and should never be taken as Financial advice.
PS I should add I'm very bullish on India and so Fairfax Financial and Fairfax India are long term holdings.
It seems to me that we are in the first inning of a very severe bear market which is why you're are still hearing the mantra this is a "buying opportunity. Many experts are stating the bull market is alive and well and to be greedy when others are fearful
No one wants to see the party come to an end but that's what I see as China sputters out and commodities tank.
Anyone close to retirement should get out and sit back. This bull market was the 3rd longest in U.S. history and if you got in early then you made a lot of money.
I sometimes wonder if the Financial Crisis ever ended and only because of QE were we able to stay on our feet. Main Street hasn't got off on any of the QE and the FED will not be able to raise rates for
possibly years especially if we see a sharp correction this year as I expect we will.
The bottom line is opportunities abound if you know where we are headed.
DON'T BUY ON THE DIPS
As always these are just the ramblings of a man trying to interpret the shadows on the wall and should never be taken as Financial advice.
PS I should add I'm very bullish on India and so Fairfax Financial and Fairfax India are long term holdings.
Monday, March 9, 2015
2015 PORTFOLIO UPDATE
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS 50% POSITION
FAIRFAX INDIA HOLDINGS 25% POSITION
CASH 25% POSITION
I HAVE ALWAYS LEFT MY PORTFOLIO UNCHANGED ONCE POSTED BUT BECAUSE FAIRFAX INDIA WAS NOT IN EXISTENCE UNTIL JANUARY 30 2015 I'VE USED SOME OF THE CASH TO TAKE A POSITION AS THIS IS A GREAT USE OF CASH IN MY OPINION.
AS WE MARK THE 6TH YEAR OF THE BULL MARKET I'M MORE CONVINCED THAT A MAJOR CORRECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROWING THE MARKET INTO A RECESSION AND EVEN DEEPER DEFLATION THAN ALREADY EXISTS.
FAIRFAX INDIA HOLDINGS
FAIRFAX + INDIA = OUTPERFORMANCE
Fairfax Financial Holdings has created a holding company called Fairfax India Holdings. FIH.U which debuted on January 30 2015 at $10 per share (Toronto Stock Exchange)
Prem Watsa a Canadian who is originally from India and in my opinion one of the greatest investors of our time has raised over a billion dollars US for this venture.
Fairfax Financial holds an approximate 28.5% equity interest in Fairfax India and approximately 95.1% of the voting rights in Fairfax India
"Fairfax India is an investment holding company whose investment objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation, while preserving capital, by investing in public and private equity securities and debt instruments inIndia and Indian businesses or other businesses with customers, suppliers or business primarily conducted in, or dependent on, India ("Indian Investments"). Generally, subject to compliance with applicable law, Indian Investments will be made with a view to acquiring control or significant influence positions"
In the last quote Fairfax Financial alludes to their 15 years of experience in India. For example Fairfax financial owns Fairbridge Capital a wholly owned subsidiary that invests and advises Fairfax on Indian acquisitions
74.77% THOMAS COOK INDIA
26 per cent stake in ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co.
49% stake in MFXchange Holdings
54.87 per cent. in Sterling Holiday Resorts
Close to 15% of Nation's Trust Bank (Sri Lanka)
Aramark India Pvt LTD
THIS IS WHAT FAIRFAX FINANCIAL THROUGH Fairbridge Capital AND SUBSIDIARIES HAVE ACCOMPLISHED SO FAR, NOW IMAGINE WHAT FAIRFAX INDIA HOLDINGS CAN ACCOMPLISH WITH ROUGHLY 1 BILLION USD TO INVEST IN A PRO BUSINESS, MODI ENVIRONMENT WITH YEARLY GDP GROWING AT 8% AND HIGHER over the next decade?
Fairfax Financial Holdings has created a holding company called Fairfax India Holdings. FIH.U which debuted on January 30 2015 at $10 per share (Toronto Stock Exchange)
Prem Watsa a Canadian who is originally from India and in my opinion one of the greatest investors of our time has raised over a billion dollars US for this venture.
Fairfax Financial holds an approximate 28.5% equity interest in Fairfax India and approximately 95.1% of the voting rights in Fairfax India
The following are quotes describing objectives and the portfolio of Fairfax India from press releases and other sources.
"Fairfax India is an investment holding company whose investment objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation, while preserving capital, by investing in public and private equity securities and debt instruments in
"The Portfolio
The Company will invest in businesses that are expected to benefit from India’s current pro-business political environment, its growing middle class and its demographic trends that are expected to underpin strong growth for several years.
Sectors of the Indian economy that the Company believes will benefit most from such trends include infrastructure, the consumer services and retail sectors and the export sector. The Company, however, will not be limited to investing solely in these sectors and intends to invest in other sectors as opportunities arise.
The Company will utilize, and expects to benefit significantly from, the experience and expertise of Fairfax, the Portfolio Advisor, Fairbridge and their extensive affiliate network in India, to source, evaluate and successfully invest in Indian Investments.
The Company will employ a conservative, fundamental value based approach to identifying and investing in high quality Indian businesses, including both public and private businesses, as well as infrastructure investments.
The Company’s strategy is designed to compound book value per share over the long term. The Company will seek attractive risk adjusted returns, but will seek at all times to emphasize downside protection and to minimize the loss of capital.
The Company anticipates that its portfolio will be concentrated, provided that the Net Proceeds of the Offerings will be invested in at least six different Indian Investments, such that no single investment is expected to have an overly undue impact on the performance of the Company.
The Company anticipates, subject to market conditions and the availability of attractive investment opportunities, that a majority of the Indian Investments, by value, will be in publicly-listed securities.
The Company will use the Net Proceeds of the Offerings, in the aggregate amount of approximately US$963,000,000, to invest, directly or indirectly, in Indian Investments.
The Company anticipates that substantially all of the Net Proceeds of the Offerings will be invested in Indian Investments within 3 years from the Closing Date.
Pending such investments, the Company will invest at least 90% of the Net Proceeds of the Offerings exclusively in Permitted Investments, and the remainder will be used for general corporate and working capital purposes.
"We believe India will be transformed by the business-friendly government of Prime Minister Modi - and Fairfax India, with our resources and expertise in India developed over the last 15 years, will be well positioned to make excellent significant long-term investments in businesses with experienced and ethical management teams."
74.77% THOMAS COOK INDIA
26 per cent stake in ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co.
49% stake in MFXchange Holdings
74 per cent stake in human resources staffing firm Ikya Human Capital Solutions Now known as Quess Corp
54.87 per cent. in Sterling Holiday Resorts
Close to 15% of Nation's Trust Bank (Sri Lanka)
Aramark India Pvt LTD
THIS IS WHAT FAIRFAX FINANCIAL THROUGH Fairbridge Capital AND SUBSIDIARIES HAVE ACCOMPLISHED SO FAR, NOW IMAGINE WHAT FAIRFAX INDIA HOLDINGS CAN ACCOMPLISH WITH ROUGHLY 1 BILLION USD TO INVEST IN A PRO BUSINESS, MODI ENVIRONMENT WITH YEARLY GDP GROWING AT 8% AND HIGHER over the next decade?
Please note I've taken a substantial position and as always I do this for my own personal enjoyment and frustration and is NOT to be taken as Financial advice.
Monday, January 5, 2015
Correction Recession and then Deflation
Japan, Europe, and the U.S. will be hit by severe deflation in that order due to each country's debt.
With so many potential global land mines it is easy to imagine a major correction sometime this year.
Any major correction will sober investors up and they aren't going to like what they see.
The bottom line is Debt matters and creating more debt debilitates the global economy.
It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds and what will cause the next major correction which is long overdue.
A crash may be more accurate than correction.
With so many potential global land mines it is easy to imagine a major correction sometime this year.
Any major correction will sober investors up and they aren't going to like what they see.
The bottom line is Debt matters and creating more debt debilitates the global economy.
It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds and what will cause the next major correction which is long overdue.
A crash may be more accurate than correction.
Friday, January 2, 2015
OUTLOOK FOR 2015
I sense that 2015 will be a strong year for the US market but for the rest of the world I see more signs of deflation as Prem Watsa has warned of.
Job numbers should average well over 300,000 and the GDP should average close to 3.2%.
The greenback will strengthen while the rest of the world's currencies weaken.
Interest rates will gradually go up but I do mean gradually possibly as early as the spring.
Even though I might lose out on a great year I'm going to stay with cash and Fairfax Financial.
India looks very interesting while China is looking weak. I expect China to be revising their GDP numbers down over the next few years.
China, Japan, and Russia are potential catalysts for causing a major global correction and so I'm stepping back.
I should add that a major correction of at least 15% should be expected. Cash is king!
Wish you all a profitable 2015
Job numbers should average well over 300,000 and the GDP should average close to 3.2%.
The greenback will strengthen while the rest of the world's currencies weaken.
Interest rates will gradually go up but I do mean gradually possibly as early as the spring.
Even though I might lose out on a great year I'm going to stay with cash and Fairfax Financial.
India looks very interesting while China is looking weak. I expect China to be revising their GDP numbers down over the next few years.
China, Japan, and Russia are potential catalysts for causing a major global correction and so I'm stepping back.
I should add that a major correction of at least 15% should be expected. Cash is king!
Wish you all a profitable 2015
Thursday, January 1, 2015
2014 Performance +17%
HIG WARRANTS 25%
AIG WARRANTS 21%
HIG COMMON 16.6%
AIG COMMON 9.8%
CANADIAN TIRE 22%
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL 43%
SANGAMO 15%
MORGAN STANLEY 21%
SUN LIFE 10.5%
THOMPSON REUTERS 14.6%
BANK OF AMERICA 12.5%
BANK OF AMERICA WARRANTS 3.6%
FAIRHOLME -6%
AS ALWAYS I HAVEN'T INCLUDED DIVIDENDS OR TRANSACTION COSTS.
Roughly a 17% average so not bad and not great.
AIG WARRANTS 21%
HIG COMMON 16.6%
AIG COMMON 9.8%
CANADIAN TIRE 22%
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL 43%
SANGAMO 15%
MORGAN STANLEY 21%
SUN LIFE 10.5%
THOMPSON REUTERS 14.6%
BANK OF AMERICA 12.5%
BANK OF AMERICA WARRANTS 3.6%
FAIRHOLME -6%
AS ALWAYS I HAVEN'T INCLUDED DIVIDENDS OR TRANSACTION COSTS.
Roughly a 17% average so not bad and not great.
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