Toronto Dominion Bank +11.8%
Fairfax Financial Holdings +18%
Research in Motion/BB -37%
AIG Common +44.6%
AIG Warrants +47%
Citigroup +31%
Disney +53.4%
Sangamo +131.2%
Hartford Financial +61.5
Hartford Warrants +104%
Bank Of America + 34.1%
Bank of America (A) Warrants + 22%
Oaktree + 29.3%
On Dec 3 2012 I published these 2013 selections convinced that it would be a good year for investors and I believe with low interest rates and employment numbers improving we will see another good year in 2014.
The average for 2013 came out to 42.4% outperforming the S&P again.
Please note I haven't added dividends or transaction fees.
The only loser was Research in Motion now known as Blackberry down 37% for the year.
I believe with a little more time Blackberry will reinvent itself and post some impressive gains.
.
As always I do this to put my ideas on the line and to demonstrate how little I know.
Please DO NOT take this as financial advice.
Wishing you my very best in 2014 Ron Taylor
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Outlook for 2014
I think the big story next year will be how fast the US unemployment rate falls.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6% by this time next year.
In regard to the stock market I expect another very good year due to more people working and buying homes.
Mortgage rates will rise further and possibly Interest rates by this time next year if the employment numbers really start to increase.
All the experts seem to agree 2014 looks good which worries me but I've come to the conclusion that 2014 may be much stronger that most experts imagine.
Certainly retail investors remain skeptical and some are still on the sidelines but confidence is rising because of fundamentals not hope.
The Canadian market should also do well thanks to the US economy improving.
I will be posting the results of the 2013 selections on December 31 after the bell which should hit a 40% average if all goes well over the remaining few trading days.
In fact I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 6% by this time next year.
In regard to the stock market I expect another very good year due to more people working and buying homes.
Mortgage rates will rise further and possibly Interest rates by this time next year if the employment numbers really start to increase.
All the experts seem to agree 2014 looks good which worries me but I've come to the conclusion that 2014 may be much stronger that most experts imagine.
Certainly retail investors remain skeptical and some are still on the sidelines but confidence is rising because of fundamentals not hope.
The Canadian market should also do well thanks to the US economy improving.
I will be posting the results of the 2013 selections on December 31 after the bell which should hit a 40% average if all goes well over the remaining few trading days.
Sunday, December 1, 2013
TOP STOCK SELECTIONS FOR 2014
HIG Warrants or Common
AIG Warrants or Common
Canadian Tire
Fairfax Financial
Sangamo
Morgan Stanley
Sun Life Financial
Thomson Reuters
Bank of America Common or Warrants (A)
Fairholme
Disclaimer: As always I do this for my own entertainment and to put my ideas on the line to demonstrate how little I know.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
A WILLING SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF
Willing Suspension of disbelief: the point at which you give up all skepticism
A willing suspension of disbelief takes over when the situation is just too good to be true and when the situation is just too bad to be true.
It is quite clear we have been and still are too pessimistic.
In this case I'm talking about how many Investors are standing on the sidelines while witnessing a secular bull market.
They can see it but they can't believe it.
Investors are suffering a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" in that they have been frightened then brainwashed into thinking that a stock market crash is just around the corner.
The best time to invest other than right after a crash is when Investors are fearful and pessimistic and that time is now.
You haven't "missed it" only part of it.
There will be corrections but this bull market is still in the early innings.
2014 selections will be announced in early December and the results of the 2013 selections will be announced December 31 after the bell.
As always I do this for my own personal entertainment to demonstrate how little I know.
A willing suspension of disbelief takes over when the situation is just too good to be true and when the situation is just too bad to be true.
It is quite clear we have been and still are too pessimistic.
In this case I'm talking about how many Investors are standing on the sidelines while witnessing a secular bull market.
They can see it but they can't believe it.
Investors are suffering a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" in that they have been frightened then brainwashed into thinking that a stock market crash is just around the corner.
The best time to invest other than right after a crash is when Investors are fearful and pessimistic and that time is now.
You haven't "missed it" only part of it.
There will be corrections but this bull market is still in the early innings.
2014 selections will be announced in early December and the results of the 2013 selections will be announced December 31 after the bell.
As always I do this for my own personal entertainment to demonstrate how little I know.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Strong Finish to 2013?
One never knows for sure but I remain very bullish. We are two and a half months away from 2014
and despite a very good year investors are "walking quickly and looking over their shoulder" for a correction.
In my mind this fear is more than welcome because it shows we haven't reached that point in the cycle where investors are convinced the market will never go down.
It seems to me this sentiment will continue far into 2014 and that can only be good for stocks.
By early December I plan on submitting my 2014 selections and of course the results of the 2013
selections will be posted January 1 2014.
As of now the 2013 portfolio is outperforming the S&P easily and it looks as if this will be another stellar year if the remaining few months perform as expected.
Disclaimer
Please note I do this for my own addictive pleasure and to put my ideas on the line so that I can remind myself of how little I know.
As always conduct your own due diligence so you can demonstrate how little you know too.
This blog is for entertainment purposes only.
and despite a very good year investors are "walking quickly and looking over their shoulder" for a correction.
In my mind this fear is more than welcome because it shows we haven't reached that point in the cycle where investors are convinced the market will never go down.
It seems to me this sentiment will continue far into 2014 and that can only be good for stocks.
By early December I plan on submitting my 2014 selections and of course the results of the 2013
selections will be posted January 1 2014.
As of now the 2013 portfolio is outperforming the S&P easily and it looks as if this will be another stellar year if the remaining few months perform as expected.
Disclaimer
Please note I do this for my own addictive pleasure and to put my ideas on the line so that I can remind myself of how little I know.
As always conduct your own due diligence so you can demonstrate how little you know too.
This blog is for entertainment purposes only.
Sunday, July 28, 2013
Don't Fight the Tape!
Investors still can't believe the US markets are healthy and getting their swagger back.
This is mainly due to recency bias in my opinion.
Investors are still recovering from the financial crisis and still see Black Swans everywhere.
Most of us can relate to the idea of bubbles bursting because the fundamentals can't keep up with the optimism but this is a different kind of bubble where pessimism can't keep up with the fundamentals.
In other words the view of the markets is just too pessimistic to be true.
Many Investors are still fighting the last war and can't imagine we are in the early stages of a very impressive bull market.
This is an excellent time to enter the markets knowing that this degree of disbelief offers us a margin of safety.
Disclaimer
Please note I do this for my own addictive pleasure and to put my ideas on the line so that I can remind myself of how little I know.
As always conduct your own due diligence so you can demonstrate how little you know too.
This is mainly due to recency bias in my opinion.
Investors are still recovering from the financial crisis and still see Black Swans everywhere.
Most of us can relate to the idea of bubbles bursting because the fundamentals can't keep up with the optimism but this is a different kind of bubble where pessimism can't keep up with the fundamentals.
In other words the view of the markets is just too pessimistic to be true.
Many Investors are still fighting the last war and can't imagine we are in the early stages of a very impressive bull market.
This is an excellent time to enter the markets knowing that this degree of disbelief offers us a margin of safety.
Disclaimer
Please note I do this for my own addictive pleasure and to put my ideas on the line so that I can remind myself of how little I know.
As always conduct your own due diligence so you can demonstrate how little you know too.
Monday, March 4, 2013
2013 ADVANTAGE BULLS
After reviewing the latest data for January and February I'm even more convinced of a remarkably strong 2013.
In 2012 the S&P ended up 13% which was great considering how 2011 turned out.
2013 from my estimates should have us ending up somewhere between 30% and 40% higher based on historical data and the recovering housing market.
IF I'm correct the following 24 months will experience an inflow of money into stocks like we have never seen before and disbelievers will turn into hard core believers.
2013 data looks to have all the attributes of a game changer in that investor psychology will shift profoundly from whining, pessimistic barbarians to greedy,
optimistic barbarians.
IF 2013 ends as strong as I believe it will be, we may see interest rates rising sooner than expected possibly as early as the first quarter of 2014.
We continue to climb the wall of worry but it is starting to become more fun especially
IF my thinking is correct.
Disclaimer
Please note I do this for my own addictive pleasure and to put my ideas on the line so that I can remind myself of how little I know.
As always conduct your own due diligence so you can demonstrate how little you know too.
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